As someone who’s thinking about buying or selling a home, you’re probably paying close attention to mortgage rates – and wondering what’s ahead.

One thing that can affect mortgage rates is the Federal Funds Rate, which influences how much it costs banks to borrow money from each other. While the Federal Reserve (the Fed) doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, they do control the Federal Funds Rate.

The relationship between the two is why people have been watching closely to see when the Fed might lower the Federal Funds Rate. Whenever they do, that’ll put downward pressure on mortgage rates. The Fed meets next week, and three of the most important metrics they’ll look at as they make their decision are:

1. The Rate of Inflation
2. How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding
3. The Unemployment Rate

Here’s the latest data on all three.

1. The Rate of Inflation

You’ve probably heard a lot about inflation over the past year or two – and you’ve likely felt it whenever you’ve gone to buy just about anything. That’s because high inflation means prices have been going up quickly.

The Fed has stated its goal is to get the rate of inflation back down to 2%. Right now, it’s still higher than that, but moving in the right direction (see graph below):

2. How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding

The Fed is also watching how many new jobs are created each month. They want to see job growth slow down consistently before taking any action on the Federal Funds Rate. If fewer jobs are created, it means the economy is still strong but cooling a bit – which is their goal. That appears to be exactly what’s happening now. Inman says:

“. . . the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added fewer jobs in April and May than previously thought and that hiring by private companies was sluggish in June.”

So, while employers are still adding jobs, they’re not adding as many as before. That’s an indicator the economy is slowing down after being overheated for quite some time. This is an encouraging trend for the Fed to see.

3. The Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate is the percentage of people who want to work but can’t find jobs. So, a low rate means a lot of Americans are employed. That’s a good thing for many people.

But it can also lead to higher inflation because more people working means more spending – which drives up prices. Right now, the unemployment rate is low, but it’s been rising slowly over the past few months (see graph below):

It may seem harsh, but a consistently rising unemployment rate is something the Fed needs to see before deciding to cut the Federal Funds Rate. That’s because a higher unemployment rate would mean reduced spending, and that would help get inflation back under control.

What Does This Mean Moving Forward?

While mortgage rates are going to continue to be volatile in the days and months ahead, these are signs the economy is headed in the direction the Fed wants to see. But even with that, it’s unlikely they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate when they meet next week. Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, recently said:

“We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before we start the process of reducing or loosening policy.”

Basically, we’re seeing the first signs now, but they need more data and more time to feel confident that this is a consistent trend. Assuming that direction continues, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, experts say there’s a projected 96.1% chance the Fed will lower the Federal Funds Rate at their September meeting.

Remember, the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates. It’s just that whenever they decide to cut the Federal Funds Rate, mortgage rates should respond.

Of course, the timing of when the Fed takes action could change because of new economic reports, world events, and other factors. That’s why it’s usually not a good idea to try to time the market.

Bottom Line

Recent economic data may signal that hope is on the horizon for mortgage rates. Count on a local real estate agent you can trust to keep you up to date on the latest trends and what they mean for you.

If you’re in the market to buy a home, there’s some exciting news for you. Many people assume that newly built homes are more expensive than existing ones (houses that have already been lived in), but that’s not always the case. In fact, exploring newly built homes can sometimes lead to more cost-effective options, especially today. Hard to believe, right? But the data doesn’t lie.

Here are two key reasons working with your agent to look into new home construction could help you find a more budget-friendly option.

Reason 1: Lower Median Prices for Newly Built Homes

The median sales price for newly built homes is lower than the median sales price for existing homes today. This might seem surprising, but it’s true according to the latest data from the Census and the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

Why is that? Builders are focused on building what they can sell. And right now, there’s a very real need for smaller and more affordable homes – so that’s what they’ve been bringing to the market. At the same time, there are also more newly built homes already on the market than there have been over the past few years, so builders are motivated to make sure they’re selling what they’ve got available before adding more.

Reason 2: Attractive Incentives from Home Builders

Another big reason to consider a newly built home is the range of incentives that many home builders are offering. Again, since builders are aiming to sell their current inventory, some are providing special deals to sweeten the pot for homebuyers. HousingWire explains today’s trend:

“Overall, the usage of sales incentives was up to 61% in June, compared to 59% in May.”

One of the most appealing incentives right now is how builders are able to offer competitive mortgage rates. They may also provide other incentives, such as covering closing costs, or offering free upgrades.

Why This Matters to You

Considering a newly built home could open up opportunities you hadn’t thought of before. With competitive pricing and attractive incentives, you might just find that a brand-new home is the most appealing option for you.

Bottom Line

Buying a home is a big decision, and it’s essential to consider all your options. By looking into newly built homes, you might find a perfect fit for your needs and your budget.

Let’s explore the possibilities together. If you have any questions or want to see what’s available, reach out to a local real estate agent.

Even though data shows inflation is cooling, a lot of people are still feeling the pinch on their wallets. And those high costs on everything from gas to groceries are fueling unnecessary concerns that more people are going to have trouble making their mortgage payments. But, does that mean there’s a big wave of foreclosures coming?

Here’s a look at why the data and the experts say that’s not going to happen.

There Aren’t Many Homeowners Who Are Seriously Behind on Their Mortgages

One of the main reasons there were so many foreclosures during the last housing crash was because relaxed lending standards made it easy for people to take out mortgages, even when they couldn’t show they’d be able to pay them back. At that time, lenders weren’t being as strict when looking at applicant credit scores, income levels, employment status, and debt-to-income ratio.

But since then, lending standards have gotten a whole lot tighter. Lenders became much more diligent when assessing applicants for home loans. And that means we’re seeing more qualified buyers who have less of a risk of defaulting on their loans.

That’s why data from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae shows the number of homeowners who are seriously behind on their mortgage payments (known in the industry as delinquencies) has been declining for quite some time. Take a look at the graph below:  

What this means is that, not only are borrowers more qualified, but they’re also finding ways to navigate through their challenges, exploring their repayment options, or maybe even using the record amount of equity they have to sell and avoid foreclosure entirely.

The Answer Is: There’s No Sign of a Wave Coming

Before there can be a significant rise in foreclosures, the number of people who can’t make their mortgage payments would need to rise significantly. But, since so many buyers are making their payments today and homeowners have so much equity built up, a wave of foreclosures isn’t likely.

Take it from Bill McBride of Calculated Risk – an expert on the housing market who, after closely following the data and market leading up to the crash, was able to see the foreclosure crisis coming in 2008. McBride says:

“We will NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage lending has been solid, and 2) most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes.”

Bottom Line

If you’re worried about a potential foreclosure crisis, know there’s nothing in the data to suggest that’ll happen. Buyers are more qualified now, and that’s one reason why they’re not falling seriously behind on their mortgage payments. 

Some Highlights

• Want to know the biggest mistakes homebuyers are making today?
• They include everything from putting off pre-approval for too long, holding out for the perfect home, buying more than they can afford, and skipping out on hiring a pro. 
• Connect with a real estate agent to make sure you have a pro on your side who can help you avoid these mistakes.

There’s no arguing this past year has been difficult for homebuyers. And if you’re someone who has started the process of searching for a home, maybe you put your search on hold because the challenges in today’s market felt like too much to tackle. You’re not alone in that. A Bright MLS study found some of the top reasons buyers paused their search in late 2023 and early 2024 were:

• They couldn’t find anything in their price range
• They didn’t have any successful offers or had difficulty competing
• They couldn’t find the right home

If any of these sound like why you stopped looking, here’s what you need to know. The housing market is in a transition in the second half of 2024. Here are four reasons why this may be your chance to jump back in.

1. The Supply of Homes for Sale Is Growing

One of the most significant shifts in the market this year is how the months’ supply of homes for sale has increased. If you look at data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), you’ll see how inventory has grown throughout 2024 (see graph below): 

This graph shows the months’ supply of existing homes – homes that were previously lived in by another homeowner. The upward trend this year is clear.

This increase means you have a better chance of finding a home that suits your needs and preferences. And if the biggest reason you put off your home search was difficulty finding the right home, this is a big relief.

2. There’s More New Home Construction

And if you still don’t see an existing home you like, another big opportunity lies in the rise of new home construction. Builders have worked to increase the supply of newly built homes this year. And they’ve turned their attention to crafting smaller, more affordable homes based on what’s most needed in today’s market. This helps address the long-standing issue of housing undersupply throughout the country, and those smaller homes also offset some of the affordability challenges you’re feeling today.

According to data from the Census and NAR, one in three homes on the market is a newly built home (see graph below):

This means, that if you didn’t previously look at newly built homes as part of your search, you may have been cutting your pool of options by a third. Not to mention, some builders are also offering incentives like buying down mortgage rates to make it easier for buyers to get a home that fits their budget.

So, consider talking to your agent about what builders have to offer in your area. Your agent’s expertise on builder reputations, contracts, and more will help you weigh your options.

3. Less Buyer Competition

Mortgage rates are still hovering around 7%, so buyer demand isn’t as fierce as it once was. And when you combine that with more housing supply, you have a better chance of avoiding an intense bidding war. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, highlights the positive trend for the latter half of 2024, saying:

“Home shoppers who persist could see better conditions in the second half of the year, which tends to be somewhat less competitive seasonally, and might be even more so since inventory is likely to reach five-year highs.”

This creates a unique opportunity for you to find a home you want to buy with less stress and at a potentially better price.

4. Home Prices Are Moderating

Speaking of prices, home prices are also showing signs of moderation – and that’s a welcome shift after the rapid appreciation seen in recent years (see graph below): 

This moderation is mostly due to supply and demand. Supply is growing and demand is easing, so prices aren’t rising as fast. But make no mistake, that doesn’t mean prices are falling – they’re just rising at a more normal pace. You can see this in the graph. The bars are still showing prices increasing, just not as dramatic as it was before.

The average forecast for home price appreciation in 2024 is for positive growth around 3% to 5%, which is more in line with historical norms. That moderation means that you are less likely to face the steep price increases we saw a few years ago.

The Opportunity in Front of You

If you’re ready and able to buy, you may find that the second half of 2024 is a bit easier to navigate. There are still challenges, but some of the biggest hurdles you’ve faced are getting better as time wears on.

On the other hand, you could choose to wait. But if you do, here’s the risk you run. As more buyers recognize the shift in the market, competition will grow again. On a similar note, if mortgage rates do come down (as forecasts say), more buyers will flood back into the market. So, making a move now helps you take advantage of the current market conditions and get ahead of those other buyers.

Bottom Line

If you’ve put your dream of homeownership on hold, the second half of 2024 may be your chance to jump back in. Connect with a real estate agent to talk more about the opportunities you have in today’s market.

If you’re trying to decide if you’re ready to buy a home, there’s probably a lot on your mind. You’re thinking about your finances, today’s mortgage rates and home prices, the limited supply of homes for sale, and more. And, you’re juggling how all of those things will impact the choice you’ll make.

While housing market conditions are definitely a factor in your decision, your own personal situation and your finances matter too. As an article from NerdWallet says:

“Housing market trends give important context. But whether this is a good time to buy a house also depends on your financial situation, life goals and readiness to become a homeowner.”

Instead of trying to time the market, focus on what you can control. Here are a few questions that can give you clarity on whether you’re ready to make your move.

1. Do You Have a Stable Job?

One thing to consider is how stable you feel your employment is. Buying a home is a big purchase, and you’re going to sign a home loan stating you’ll pay that loan back. That’s a big commitment. Knowing you have a reliable job and a steady stream of income coming in can help put your mind at ease when making such a large purchase.

2. Have You Figured Out What You Can Afford?

If you have reliable paychecks coming in, the next thing to figure out is what you can afford. That’ll depend on your spending habits, debt, and more. To be sure you have a good idea of what to expect from a number’s perspective, start by talking to a trusted lender.

They’ll be able to tell you about the pre-approval process and what you’re qualified to borrow, current mortgage rates and your approximate monthly payment, closing costs to anticipate, and other expenses you’ll want to budget for. That way you can make an informed decision about whether you’re ready to buy.

3. Do You Have an Emergency Fund?

Another key factor is whether you’ll have enough cash left over in case of an emergency. While that’s not fun to think about, it’s an important thing to consider. You don’t want to overextend on the house, and then not be able to weather a storm if one comes along. As CNET says:

“You’ll want to have a financial cushion that can cover several months of living expenses, including mortgage payments, in case of unforeseen circumstances, such as job loss or medical emergencies.”

4. How Long Do You Plan To Live There?

It was mentioned above, but buying a home involves some upfront expenses. And while you’ll get that money back (and more) as you gain equity, that process takes time. If you plan to move too soon, you may not recoup your investment. For example, if you’re looking to sell and move again in a year, it might not make sense to buy right now. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:

“Five years is a good, comfortable mark. If the price of your home appreciates considerably, then even three years would be fine.”

So, think about your future. If you plan to transfer to a new city with the upcoming promotion you’re working toward or you anticipate your loved ones will need you to move closer to take care of them, that’s something to factor in.

5. Above all else, the most important question to answer is: do you have a team of real estate professionals in place? 

If not, finding a trusted local agent and a lender is a good first step. The pros can talk you through your options and help you decide if you’re ready to take the plunge or if you have a few more things to get in order first.

Bottom Line

If you want to have a conversation about all the things you need to consider to determine if you’re ready to buy, connect with a local real estate professional.